Vietnam Senior Living — GA Capital

GA Capital | Essentials

Vietnam Senior Living

Market

Rapid aging, changing family structures, and improving incomes are creating a new living asset class. Supply remains sparse; quality assisted living is in early innings.

November 2025

GA Capital Research

Need to Know

Demographics accelerate

Demand pull is structural

Vietnam is entering its dependency decade: senior cohorts swell rapidly, straining labour pools and turning daily-care needs into a nationwide infrastructure issue.

16.1M seniors today (~17% of population); count doubles by 2050 (MoH/VietnamPlus).
Dependency flips fast: 15→30 elders per 100 workers in ~21 years vs. ~74-year OECD glide (ASEAN/UN).
~14% live alone already (UNFPA) — informal care capacity is thinning.

Supply is scarce

Capacity gap vs. demand

Institutional supply still trails population reality; premium assisted living is nascent and charity stock dominates, leaving tier-1 catchments underserviced.

<1 bed / 1k seniors versus 3–5 in mature markets (Savills).
134 social welfare centres cover ~2,458 elders nationally; clinical capacity is scarce (ADB).
Pipelines remain thin around Tier-1 hospital nodes (Vinmec, Hoan My, HFH) thanks to land and staffing bottlenecks.

Investable asset class

Financing & demand signals

Willingness-to-pay is emerging despite fragile safety nets; integrated wellness-plus-clinic formats support occupancy stability and longer lease terms.

~36% of households say they will pay for private care (Vietnam Briefing); mobile teams test best in rural WTP (BMC).
But ~73% of seniors still lack pension/insurance benefits (Asia Insurance Review), so SHI + social allowances are core to pricing.
ISHC networks and provincial PPP incentives supply distribution, workforce, and subsidy levers for premium or mid-market builds.

Executive Summary

Aging + family structure shifts → unmet demand

Vietnam Briefing and JLL show 60+ share heading to 17% by 2030/25% by 2050 while seniors living alone rise toward ~14%; family-care capacity erodes and drives paid models.

Social protection gaps widen urgency

Asia Insurance Review notes ~73% of seniors lack pension/insurance; VietnamPlus puts pension recipients at ~16.8% — widening protection gaps elevate demand for private solutions but require creative financing.

Early innings: limited institutional supply

HCMC and satellites host ~30 establishments (JLL, VnExpress); nationwide ~400 nursing homes with half charity/state. Quality, private assisted living is scarce.

Market size ~USD 2.2B and growing

Databridge: USD 2.21B (2023) → USD 4.79B (2034) at ~7.7% CAGR. IMARC shows ~5.1% CAGR for LTC specifically.

Playbook: mixed‑use senior living + healthcare

Combine independent/assisted living with wellness and clinical partners; Arcadia (2024) underscores patient capital, regulatory navigation, and experienced operators to bridge workforce gaps.

Geography

Start with HCMC/Hanoi for healthcare access; evaluate peri-urban/satellite hubs and coastal wellness destinations (Rubiktop 2025) for resort-style retirement models.

Context

Aging Demographics & Structural Drivers

Population aging and changing households underpin sustained demand

New seniors by 2030

+6M persons

Daily care cohort doubles inside 10 years.

Senior population

16M+ today

VietnamPlus cites 16.1M seniors in 2023, ~17% of population.

60+ share

~17% by 2030

UN/JLL path to ~25% by 2050 demands institutional capacity.

Family model strain

~14% live alone

UNFPA & VnExpress show informal care eroding as dual-income households expand.

Faster ageing vs OECD

~21 years to double

OECD (2025) notes ASEAN average takes ~36 years vs. 74 in OECD; Vietnam is among the fastest.

Protection gap

~73% without pension/insurance

Asia Insurance Review (2025) reports most seniors outside formal benefit schemes; only ~16.8% receive pensions (VietnamPlus).

Vietnam moves from demographic dividend to dependency decade. A ~6 million surge in seniors forces institutional care demand while households rebalance toward dual-income earners; the pace of ageing now tracks faster than most OECD peers.

Metric	Value / Trajectory	Source
Senior population	16.1M persons (2023)	MoH via VietnamPlus
65+ share	~8% (2020) → ~14% by ~2036	JLL (UN projections)
60+ share trajectory	~13% now → ~17% (2030) → ~25% (2050)	JLL; Vietnam Briefing
Daily care cohort	~4M (2019) → ~10M (2030)	MoLISA via Vietnam Briefing
Older persons living alone	2009 ~9.7% → 2019 ~13.7%	UNFPA; VnExpress
Years to double 65+ share	2015→2036 (~21 years)	ASEAN 2024 citing UN WPP

• Demographics translate to steady occupancy potential; shrinking household size reduces informal care capacity.

Market

Market Size, Growth & Segmentation

Scope‑aware sizing and qualitative service mix

USD 4.8B top-line

DataBridge (2024) base case hits USD 4.79B by 2031. Institutional supply can capture ~30%+ if quality capacity exists.

~7.5–8% CAGR

Cross-checks (IMARC SEA, TechSci) cluster in mid/high single digits; upside with private-pay penetration.

Home care still majority

DataBridge segments show home care leading today; institutional share expands fastest as families outsource ADL care.

Use DataBridge as the sizing spine, triangulate with Ken Research and IMARC to bound the institutional TAM and double-count risk.

Total elderly care market (USD Bn)

Source	Figure	Scope / Note
DataBridge	USD 2.21B (2023) → USD 4.79B (2034)	~7.7% CAGR; broad elderly care
Ken Research	~USD 2.20B (~2024)	Cross‑check level
IMARC (SEA LTC)	USD 39.3B (2024) → USD 81.0B (2033)	Regional benchmark; 7.5% CAGR
TechSci (Home Healthcare)	~5.6% CAGR to 2029	Vietnam Home Healthcare market growth

Illustrative spend mix by 2030

Home care & monitoring

52.00 % of spend

Institutional & assisted living

28.00 % of spend

Rehab & therapy

12.00 % of spend

Independent living amenities

8.00 % of spend

Service mix context

Service	Notes	Source
Home care	Dominant today; affordability & culture	Ken Research
Assisted living / Nursing	Severely undersupplied; quality gap	JLL•news
Rehabilitation	Hospital‑adjacent demand growing	Ken Research
Independent / Active adult	Lifestyle + aging‑in‑place; early stage	Industry

SEA LTC market share (2024)

Vietnam’s elderly care market (~USD 2.21B – DataBridge 2024) represents roughly 5.6% of the broader Southeast Asia long-term care market (USD 39.3B – IMARC 2024).

SEA LTC market share (2033/34 outlook)

By 2033/34, Vietnam could reach ~USD 4.8B (DataBridge) as SEA LTC expands to ~USD 81B (IMARC), keeping share near 6%. Figures approximate and mix adjacent forecast horizons.

Treat IMARC's LTC growth as a subset; avoid double counting within total elderly‑care figures. Use SEA figures for pricing/penetration benchmarks while DataBridge (2024) underpins 2023–2031 Vietnam sizing; TechSci home-health figures offer a services cross-check. Share estimations combine adjacent base/forecast years and should be stress-tested with primary operator intel.

Sources:Data Bridge Market Research — Vietnam Elderly Care Market,Ken Research — Vietnam Elderly Care Market,IMARC Group — South East Asia Long Term Care Market,IMARC — Vietnam Long-Term Care Market

Regional Context

Global & Asia-Pacific Benchmarks

Frame Vietnam's trajectory against peers and the expanding global senior living market

Regional ageing accelerates addressable demand

By 2050, Vietnam's 60+ cohort nearly doubles to ~30M people, outpacing regional averages and pressing for mixed-care solutions.

Global senior living market doubles by 2030

KPMG projects the global sector will move from ~USD 190B (2020) to ~USD 375B (2030), driven by APAC and Middle East growth corridors.

Vietnam's share still below peers

Even at 27% seniors by 2050, Vietnam trails Japan and Singapore in share, highlighting runway for professional operators before saturation.

Global senior living market (USD Bn)

2020

USD 189B

Baseline global senior living spend at the start of the decade.

2025E

USD 285B

Mid-period run rate as APAC and Middle East supply accelerates.

2030E

USD 375B

Projected near-doubling of sector value by 2030 (KPMG).

Growth curve highlights the sector’s near doubling this decade, underscoring continued cross-border operator interest and capital inflows.

Senior population — selected Asian markets

Market	2024 seniors (Mn)	2024 share	2050 seniors (Mn)	2050 share
China	292.2	20.6%	504.0	40.0%
India	156.7	10.8%	346.0	20.6%
Japan	44.4	35.9%	45.5	43.3%
Thailand	15.7	22.0%	24.0	36.1%
Vietnam	14.1	13.9%	29.8	27.1%
South Korea	4.8	18.1%	7.2	27.9%

Vietnam’s senior share nearly doubles, narrowing the gap with mature markets like Japan and Singapore.

• KPMG, "The Rise of Silver Generation" (2025) — figures rounded; treat as directional benchmarks.

Sources:KPMG — The Rise of Silver Generation (2025),Data Bridge Market Research — Vietnam Elderly Care

Supply

Supply vs Demand Snapshot

Why quality assisted living is underbuilt

Professional beds (est.)

<1 per 1k seniors

Versus 3–5 per 1k in mature markets.

Charity & state share

~50%

Limits service scope; private operators fill premium/mid gaps.

Pipeline visibility

Sparse

Savills (2024) highlights limited pipeline; most stock remains philanthropic or hospital-affiliated.

Beds per 1k seniors (illustrative)

Vietnam<1 bed / 1k

Gap remains pronounced in Tier-1 cities.

Thailand~1.6 beds / 1k

Regional stepping stone with more mature stock.

Japan~3.4 beds / 1k

Benchmark for geriatric-heavy markets.

United States~5.2 beds / 1k

Saturation benchmark for full-service assisted living.

Benchmark derived from regional disclosures; Vietnam estimate based on nursing home census / 60+ cohort. Highlights capacity gap vs. peers.

Execution levers

Tier-1 hospital adjacency

Anchor near major hospitals (Vinmec, Hoan My, Hanoi French Hospital) to secure acuity trust and physician referrals.

Reposition charity assets

Upgrade underutilized charity homes via PPP/lease model; layer private-pay wings & step-up services.

Lifestyle/Resort hybrids

Savills notes wellness-led resorts as demand catalysts; pair integrated hospitality with clinical partners.

Area	Count	Quality snapshot	Source
HCMC + satellites	~30	Mostly charity‑based; modest scale	JLL (Q1 2024)•VnExpress (2025)
Nationwide nursing homes	~400	~50% charity/state	Viet Nam News

Insight	Detail	Source
Market structure	Savills Vietnam (2024) characterizes senior housing as nascent with pilots clustered in HCMC/Hanoi wellness projects requiring healthcare tie-ins.	Savills Vietnam — Senior Housing Insights
Operator landscape	B-Company (2024) tracks new private nursing homes (Bình Mỹ, Lien Tam, Tuyet Thai) responding to rising willingness to pay for professional care.	B-Company — Nursing Home Market Overview
Service segmentation	Data Bridge Market Research (2024) splits services into home care, institutional care, and adult day care; home care remains the largest spend share.	DBMR — Vietnam Elderly Care Market

• Scarce quality stock + rising willingness to pay creates room for professional operators near tier‑1 healthcare nodes.

• Cross-reference Savills (2024), B-Company (2024), DBMR (2024), and VnExpress (2025) to validate pipeline, operator, and service mix assumptions prior to investment decisions.

Sources:JLL — Senior Housing Potential in Vietnam,Savills Vietnam — Senior Housing Insights,B-Company — Vietnam Nursing Home Market,Data Bridge Market Research — Vietnam Elderly Care,VnExpress — Why Vietnam still lacks retirement homes

World Bank Context

Aging Context — Projections & Living Patterns

Selected touchpoints from World Bank’s Vietnam: Adapting to an Aging Society

Selected projection points

2020 (65+)

8.00 % of population

2030 (60+)

17.00 % of population

2036 (65+)

14.00 % of population

2050 (60+)

25.00 % of population

Illustrative points: 2020 65+ ~8%; 2036 65+ ~14%; 2030 60+ ~17%; 2050 60+ ~25%. Use WB primary charts for detailed series.

Complementary indicators

Indicator	Note	Source
Total dependency ratio (historical low ~2007–2042)	Window of opportunity period per WB charts	World Bank — Adapting to an Aging Society
Life expectancy (rising)	Both sexes trending up; urban higher than rural	World Bank — Adapting to an Aging Society
Living alone (elderly)	Share rising across surveys 2009→2019	UNFPA•WB

Source:World Bank — Vietnam: Adapting to an Aging Society (PDF)

Unit Economics

Affordability & Fee Bands

Align service tiers with purchasing power and emerging private-pay cohorts

Service mix dynamics (DBMR, 2024)

Home care remains the largest revenue pool; institutional care is the fastest-growing segment through 2034 as urban families outsource ADL support.

Buyer cohorts (Savills Vietnam, 2024)

Research highlights three paying cohorts: affluent retirees seeking wellness amenities, returning overseas Vietnamese, and adult children funding care for parents in Tier‑1 cities.

Coverage gap insight (Asia Insurance Review, 2025)

With ~73% of seniors outside pension/insurance schemes and only ~16.8% receiving pensions, developers must blend tiered pricing, social partnerships, and insurance tie-ups to reach volume.

WTP realities (BMC, 2012)

Mobile care teams draw the strongest willingness to use/pay among rural households; nursing centres require subsidies with 2–3× more respondents insisting on free-of-charge access than paying full cost.

Private nursing demand (B-Company, 2024)

Growing shortage of family caregivers drives demand for professional nursing homes, especially in HCMC and Hà Nội where wages can support VND 20–40m monthly fees.

Health financing levers (WHO/ADB, 2022)

WHO and ADB note 87% SHI coverage and emerging LTC pilots; pairing projects with social health insurance, ISHC networks, and PPP incentives can soften out-of-pocket shocks.

• Illustrative bands for planning; confirm fee quotes directly with operators during underwriting.

• Sources: Data Bridge Market Research (2024), Savills Vietnam (2024), B-Company nursing home analysis (2024), Asia Insurance Review (2025), VietnamPlus (2024), Vietnam Social Security (2022 target), Vietnam Briefing (2023), BMC Health Services Research (2012), WHO Viet Nam (2018), ADB (2022).

Formal benefit coverage among seniors

Asia Insurance Review (2025) highlights ~73% of Vietnamese seniors lacking pension or insurance benefits; remaining ~27% access formal schemes, though only ~16.8% receive pensions directly (VietnamPlus, 2024).

Willingness to pay for senior care

Vietnam Briefing (2023) notes roughly one-third of seniors/families are ready to pay for private care; rural WTP research (BMC, 2012) shows many households still rely on subsidised offerings.

Model	Fee band	Typical inclusions	Notes
Assisted Living (urban, private)	VND 15–30m / month	Room/board, ADL support, basic nursing	Illustrative; verify against operator quotes
Nursing Home (higher care)	VND 20–45m / month	Skilled nursing, meds mgmt, rehab sessions	Illustrative; acuity drives band
Independent Living (amenities‑led)	VND 10–18m / month	Unit rent/HOA, services optional	Amenities and location sensitive
Home Care (per visit/day)	VND 300k–1.5m	Caregiver/nurse visit, hours vary	Agency & skill level dependent

Lens	Detail	Source
Protection gap	~73% of seniors lack pension or insurance benefits	Asia Insurance Review (2025)
Pension coverage	2.7M seniors receive pensions (~16.8% coverage)	VietnamPlus (2024)
Health insurance	State aims for 95% senior HI card coverage	Vietnam Social Security (2022 target)
Willingness to pay	~36% of households ready to pay for senior care services	Vietnam Briefing (2023)
WTP sensitivity	Rural study shows preference for mobile care; many require subsidised fees	BMC Health Services Research (2012)
Urban vs rural gap	Urban initial focus; rural via home-care satellites	UNFPA•TechSci Research

Illustrative positioning plays

Play	Price point (VND)	Primary buyer	Key levers
Premium integrated living	VND 25–40m+/mo	Coastal or peri-urban luxury retirees, often overseas Vietnamese (Savills).	Wellness programs, hospitality-grade services, medical concierge partnerships.
Health-driven assisted living	VND 18–28m/mo	High-earning urban families seeking 24/7 nursing and rehab support (DBMR/B-Company).	Clinical SOPs, rehab gyms, bundled telehealth and family visitation services.
Day-care & respite	VND 5–15m/mo or VND 400k–1.2m/day	Dual-income caregivers needing daytime relief; policy-supported expansion to 21,000 clubs by 2035.	Community club network integration, transport shuttles, flexible hourly packages.

Design pricing ladders that match buyer motivations. Validate willingness-to-pay through operator conversations and household income data in Phase 2.

Funding & Partnerships

Financing Pathways & Social Protection Levers

Blend SHI, social pensions, and community networks to expand affordability

Health insurance coverage

86.8%

WHO (2018) national SHI coverage; seniors, children, and ethnic minorities receive higher subsidies.

Senior HI card target

~95%

Vietnam Social Security aims to reach ~95% HI card access for older persons (2022 directive).

Pension recipients

~2.7M

VietnamPlus (2024) cites only ~16.8% of seniors drawing monthly pensions; protection gap remains large.

• Coverage metrics are national averages; provincial execution may lag. Align pricing strategies with local subsidy rules and SHI contracting capacity.

Sources:Vietnam Social Security — Health Insurance Benefits,WHO Viet Nam — Health Financing,VietnamPlus — Elderly Employment & Social Insurance Gaps,ADB Brief 218 — Long-Term Care for Older People in Viet Nam,Asia Insurance Review — 73% of Seniors Lack Benefits

Payer & partnership landscape

Payer / Program	Coverage & beneficiaries	Developer & operator levers	Source
Social Health Insurance (SHI)	Inpatient & outpatient reimbursement; premiums subsidised 100% for 80+, 70–79 in poor/near-poor households.	Bundle assisted living with SHI-approved clinics to bill diagnostics, rehab, chronic care follow-ups.	VSS•WHO Viet Nam
Social pension & allowances	Monthly social retirement allowance expands to 75+ (70–75 for poor households) from July 2025.	Design mid-market tiers that accept allowance top-ups; integrate means-tested respite offers.	VietnamPlus 2024
Intergenerational Self-Help Clubs (ISHC)	3,442 clubs across 61 provinces; ~17k elders receive community-based home care with volunteer caregivers.	Use ISHC networks for outreach, day services, and preventive health programs feeding into paid care tiers.	ADB 2022•World Bank 2024
PPP & provincial pilots	Provincial PPPs exploring land concessions, tax relief, and clinic tie-ups for eldercare campuses (Hà Nam, Đà Nẵng).	Negotiate land-use incentives against commitments on SHI beds, dementia units, or training pipelines.	ADB 2022•Vietnam News
Private insurance & bancassurance	Emerging riders bundle long-term care and critical illness payouts; bancassurance volumes rising.	Co-create premium financing (reverse mortgage, annuity drawdown) with insurers targeting affluent families.	Asia Insurance Review 2025

Use SHI contracts and social pensions as anchor cashflows; layer ISHC/PPP partnerships for outreach and workforce pipelines.

Non-family long-term care infrastructure

Program	Services offered	Coverage	Source
Intergenerational Self-Help Clubs	Self-care coaching, home visits, social participation, basic home care (some paid caregivers).	3,442 clubs (61/63 provinces); 3.5% villages; ~17,000 elders served in home care.	ADB 2022
Family & population support volunteers	Health counselling, case management; volunteers assist frail elders with ADLs/IADLs.	370 communes (32 provinces) with ~4,500 volunteers (2016).	ADB 2022
Social welfare centres	Housing and shelter for elders without family support; limited medical capacity.	134 centres nationally serving ~2,458 residents (2016).	ADB 2022
Nursing homes (public/private)	Housing to full nursing care; private homes often unaffordable for average households.	32 nursing homes; MOLISA sites focus on basic shelter/food rather than clinical care.	ADB 2022
Nursing & rehab hospitals	Geriatric rehab, chronic care, fall prevention; referral base for assisted living.	36 provincial hospitals (2019).	ADB 2022

ADB (2022) highlights community-based models as gateways to formal senior living; partnering with ISHCs and social welfare centres can accelerate occupancy ramp.

Economics

Operating Model & Fee Sensitivity

Adjust unit mix, pricing, and stabilization assumptions to frame revenue and staffing requirements

Total units

180

Stabilized occupancy

80%

Assisted living mix

60%

Assisted fee (VND m/mo)

Independent fee (VND m/mo)

Metric	Value
Total units	180
Stabilized occupancy	80%
Average monthly fee	VND 23.2M
Monthly revenue	VND 3.34B
Annual revenue	VND 40.09B
Caregivers required (assisted)	22 FTE (1:4 ratio)

Occupancy	Monthly revenue	Annual revenue
70%	VND 2.92B	VND 35.08B
80%	VND 3.34B	VND 40.09B
90%	VND 3.76B	VND 45.10B

• Fee bands reference illustrative ranges in Affordability; corroborate estimates with operator-verified data during underwriting.

• Care staffing assumes 1 caregiver per 4 assisted residents; adjust for higher acuity or night coverage.

Sources:Ken Research — Vietnam Elderly Care Market,TechSci Research — Vietnam Home Healthcare Market,Viet Nam News — Developers eye retirement housing

Policy

Policy & Licensing Milestones

Navigate approvals, incentives, and programme mandates shaping senior living delivery

National Action Programme (2021–2030)

Sets the umbrella for multi-level elder care, targeting expanded community clubs, geriatric training, and social assistance alignment.

Government club expansion (2025)

Latest directives target ~21,000 intergenerational self-help clubs by 2035, creating grassroots demand pipelines for day-care and home care (B-Company, 2024).

Licensing remains provincial

World Bank notes facility approvals, land allocation, and pricing oversight are still handled by provinces with guidance from MOH/MOLISA — investors must secure local champions early.

Date	Reference	Topic	Issued by
2017	Decision 1579/QĐ-TTg	Health care programme for older persons to 2030	Prime Minister
2021–2030	National Action Programme on Older People	Integrated health & social care roadmap; community club expansion	Government
Aug 2025	Decision 1648/QĐ-TTg	Scale intergenerational self-help clubs to 21,000 by 2035	Prime Minister
Ongoing	MOH/MOLISA circulars	Facility licensing, staffing ratios, fee supervision	MOH & MOLISA

Use official circulars and provincial directives for definitive licensing steps; items above orient diligence but must be validated with counsel.

Sources:World Bank — Adapting to an Aging Society (policy annex),B-Company — Vietnam Nursing Home Market (2024)

Investor watchlist

Focus area	Detail	Source
Provincial incentives	Track land-lease discounts, PPP frameworks, and healthcare zoning allowances in Hà Nội, HCMC, Đà Nẵng, Bình Dương.	Savills Vietnam•World Bank policy annex
Healthcare integration	Licensing smoother when partnered with hospitals/clinics; expect co-located health checks and telehealth provisions in approvals.	B-Company nursing home analysis•DBMR service segmentation
Quality standards	Draft geriatric care SOPs borrow from international benchmarks; operators must evidence training pipelines and infection control.	World Bank — Adapting to an Aging Society

Segment

Home Healthcare

Urban, chronic-care driven; services growth alongside equipment provision

Market size 2023 (TechSci)

≈USD 111M

Baseline spend anchored in urban metros; equipment + services.

CAGR 2024–2029

~5.6% per year

TechSci forecast; services outpace equipment as chronic disease rises.

Southern Vietnam share

~45–50%

HCMC density drives demand; northern metros catching up.

Segmentation snapshot

Category	Split	Notes
Components	Equipment; Services	Services share rising with chronic disease + urban demand
Indications	Cardio/HTN; Diabetes/Kidney; Neurological; Respiratory; Mobility	Per TechSci scope examples
Region	Southern; Northern; Central	Southern leads (HCMC density)

Care pathway levers

Hospital discharge planning

Hospitals (Vinmec, Hoan My) bundle home visits + remote vitals for post-acute care.

Digital monitoring

IoT & telehealth platforms plug into family dashboards; families pay subscription for visibility.

Respite integration

Home services act as feeder for assisted living respite stays, reducing family burn-out.

• Treat TechSci's growth estimates as directional until operator quotes confirm pricing and mix.

Sources:TechSci Research — Vietnam Home Healthcare Market,Ken Research — Vietnam Elderly Care Market

Selected ecosystem participants

Name	Role	Source
VinaHealth; Nhan Ai	Home care providers	Ken Research
Hospitals/clinic networks	Referral hubs (Vinmec, Hoan My)	Ken Research
Cleveland Clinic (reference)	Clinical protocols for chronic care pathways	Cleveland Clinic

Home healthcare intersects with senior living via care pathways, monitoring, and respite support for families.

Community Clubs vs. Day‑Care vs. Residential

Service Models & Customer Profiles

Triangulate Vietnam’s three-tier landscape with global buyer archetypes and operator plays

Savills Vietnam (2024)

Highlights hybrid wellness resorts and integrated clinics as the next wave, with overseas Vietnamese investors driving upscale demand.

B-Company (2024)

Notes sharp rise in private nursing homes such as Bình Mỹ, Lien Tâm, Tuyết Thái — proof points for higher-acuity models.

Rubiktop Silver Economy (2025)

Positions coastal and lifestyle destinations as strategic for retirement living, pairing wellness ecosystems with senior services.

World Bank ISHC (2024)

Intergenerational self-help clubs (6k+ nationwide) show how community-based care can extend reach beyond formal facilities in Vietnam.

ASEAN Active Ageing (2024)

Region-wide review shows Vietnam offering full spectrum of home/day/community services, with gaps in dementia support vs. Singapore/Thailand.

OECD Active Ageing (2025)

Benchmark warns ASEAN pace of ageing doubles in ~36 years vs. 74 in OECD; underscores need for mixed public-private eldercare ecosystems.

Arcadia Consulting (2024)

Stresses patient capital, operational depth, and regulatory agility for PBSA + senior living teams entering Vietnam.

KPMG Silver Generation (2025)

Global benchmark shows senior living spend doubling by 2030; APAC operators blend hospitality and healthcare to capture growth.

Factor	Tier 1: Community Clubs	Tier 2: Day‑Care Centers	Tier 3: Residential/Resort
Scale	9,000+ clubs (2024) → 21,000 by 2035	10–15 centers (HCMC/Hanoi)	~80 homes nationwide (2024)
Pricing (VND / mo.)	Free / nominal (govt-backed)	5–15M	13–40M+
Services	Monthly meetings, health checks	PT/OT, activities, meals, shuttle	24/7 care, private rooms, spa
Target segment	All seniors (universal)	Urban affluent families	Wealthy retirees (lifestyle)
Location	Commune/ward level (63 prov.)	Urban cores only	Peri-urban/resort areas
Capex	Govt subsidy	VND 10–30B per center	VND 100–500B per site
ROI timeline	CSR/impact play	3–5 years	7–12 years
Growth driver	Policy mandate	Cultural acceptance	Wealth accumulation

• Targets reference Decision 1648 (club expansion), Savills Vietnam senior housing research (2024), B-Company nursing home briefing (2024), Rubiktop (2025) silver economy insights, Arcadia Consulting (2024) real estate symposium takeaways, ASEAN (2024) active ageing service inventory, OECD (2025) ageing pace benchmarks, and World Bank (2024) ISHC scaling case.

Global customer profiles mapped to Vietnam offerings

Profile (KPMG 2025)	Key needs	Vietnam fit	Pricing logic
Active seniors	Recreation, wellness programs, community living	Independent / resort living	Amenities-led packages (KPMG 2025)
Daily living support	Cooking, dressing, transportation assistance	Assisted living, structured day-care	Bundled day services (Savills, 2024)
Chronic care patients	Continuous nursing, medical oversight, rehab	Skilled nursing / hospital-adjacent facilities	Premium 24/7 care (B-Company, 2024)

Use KPMG’s archetypes to design product ladders and ensure each tier has a clear value proposition and pricing rationale.

From stand‑alone to integrated ecosystems

Market Trends & Ecosystem Evolution

Conglomerates embed elder care into master‑planned communities while day‑care scales in urban cores

Period	Event	Significance	Strategy	Risk	Capex Model
2022	Phương Đông Asahi opens (Tsubasa)	First premium facility	Ecosystem plays	Lower	Shared
Mar 2024	Vingroup × Well Group partnership	Conglomerate validation	International ops partners	Lower	Partnership
May 2024	World Bank spotlights ISHC model	6k+ community clubs scaling care	Community-based services	Medium	Asset-light
Aug 2025	Decision 1648 (21,000 clubs)	Policy tailwind	Day‑care TAM expansion	Medium	10–30B/center
Oct 2025	Vin New Horizon announced	Network strategy begins	Nationwide platform	Managed	Phased
2025	OECD Active Ageing report	ASEAN ageing pace > OECD	Regional benchmarking	Macro	N/A
Dec 2024	Golden Valley day‑care opens (HCMC)	Private model scaling	Day‑care premium	Medium	Asset‑light

Items synthesized from news references, World Bank (2024) ISHC coverage, and OECD (2025) active ageing benchmarking; use official releases for exact dates and scope on each project as we verify.

Market Validation

Recent Announcements & Proof Points

Key moves (2022–2025) signalling capital commitment and operating models

Vin New Horizon (2025)

Vingroup announced a multi-site senior living platform anchored in Cần Giờ’s Vinhomes Green Paradise, leveraging the Well Group partnership for SOPs.

Japanese know-how embedded

Intracom’s Phương Đông Asahi (Tsubasa) and Vingroup × Well Group demonstrate Vietnam’s openness to overseas operators for clinical standards.

Premium day-care scaling

Golden Valley Senior Living launched in Thảo Điền (Dec 2024) with hospitality-style day services, indicating willingness-to-pay in expatriate-heavy districts.

Company	Project	Location	Status	Partner / Operator
Vingroup	Vin New Horizon	Vinhomes Green Paradise (Cần Giờ) + nationwide rollout	Announced Oct 2025	Well Group (Japan)
Intracom	Phương Đông Asahi	Phương Đông medical campus, Hà Nội	Operational since 2022	Tsubasa (Japan)
Golden Valley Senior Living	Premium senior day-care & residences	Thảo Điền, HCMC	Operational (Dec 2024)	Independent
Sun Group	Sun Urban City elder care district	Hà Nam province	In development	Sun Family Clinic ecosystem
Bình Mỹ / Liên Tâm / Tuyết Thái	Private nursing home network expansion	HCMC, Hà Nội, Hải Phòng	Capacity expanding	Local healthcare partners

Sources: Viet Nam News, Vietcetera, B-Company (2024) nursing home review, company announcements. Confirm scope (beds, care level, opening timeline) before underwriting.

Pre-investment diligence steps

Verify capacity & pricing
Obtain latest bed count, fee tiers, and occupancy ramp assumptions from operators.
Check licensing timeline
Confirm provincial approvals, land-lease status, and healthcare integration requirements.
Assess workforce plan
Review caregiver training pipelines, international partner coverage, and staffing ratios.

Framework

Business Models & Trends

How operators will package services and scale

Models

Independent living / active adult communities (lifestyle + aging‑in‑place).
Assisted living / nursing homes (higher ADL support; clinical adjacency).
Home care / community care (dominant today; integrate digital monitoring).
Hybrid wellness + real‑estate (resort‑style retirement with on‑site care).

Trends

First‑mover advantage in premium assisted living in HCMC/Hanoi.
Integration with hospitals/clinics; telehealth and chronic care pathways.
Tiered pricing to address affordability; family‑inclusive design.
Operator partnerships to solve workforce and standards gaps.

Landscape

Operators, Platforms & Ecosystem Partners

Who is moving first — from conglomerates to specialist nursing operators

Conglomerate validation

Vingroup × Well Group (JP) and Sun Group are embedding senior living into mixed-use ecosystems, signalling scale capital entering the space (Viet Nam News; Savills Vietnam, 2024).

Specialist operators emerging

B-Company (2024) tracks purpose-built homes such as Bình Mỹ, Liên Tâm, and Tuyết Thái responding to rising private-pay demand in HCMC and Hà Nội.

Healthcare partnerships critical

DBMR and Ken Research highlight hospital groups (Vinmec, Hoàn Mỹ) extending into home care and chronic pathways — essential for licensing and trust.

Company / Project	Focus	Tier / Model	Stage	Source
Vingroup × Well Group (JP)	Elderly health care centre within Hà Nội ecosystem	Integrated senior living + medical	Cooperation agreement (Mar 2024)	Viet Nam News
Sun Group — Sun Urban City (Hà Nam)	Senior-focused district with specialist hospital component	Premium integrated township	Planned / zoning	Viet Nam News
Golden Valley Senior Living (HCMC)	Premium nursing/day-care with Western positioning	Upper premium assisted living	Operational (Dec 2024)	Vietcetera
Phương Đông Asahi (Intracom × Tsubasa)	Hospital-adjacent senior campus in Hà Nội	Medicalised assisted living	Operational (2022)	Press coverage•B-Company
Bình Mỹ / Liên Tâm / Tuyết Thái	Purpose-built nursing homes serving core urban markets	Mid-market nursing	Operational (capacity expanding)	B-Company (2024)
Vinmec / Hoàn Mỹ	Hospital networks offering chronic care, home healthcare, rehab	Healthcare platform	Active operators	Ken Research•DBMR
VinaHealth / Nhân Ái Homecare	Home care, respite, telehealth monitoring	Home & community care	Active	Ken Research

Add capacity (beds, units) and financial terms once confirmed with operators; treat the above as directional landscaping.

Partnership leverage points

Partner type	Role	Strategic value
Japanese operators	Operational SOPs, staff training (e.g., Well Group, Tsubasa)	Transfers global standards to Vietnam; improves licensing odds.
Healthcare systems	Clinical oversight, referral pipelines (Vinmec, Hoàn Mỹ)	Essential for chronic care credibility and insurance discussions.
Community club networks	Feeder for day-care/home-care (21k club expansion)	Supports hub-and-spoke models and CSR positioning.

Ops & Policy

Challenges, Risks & Policy Context

Anticipate friction points and align mitigation with policy momentum

Supply gaps persist

Savills Vietnam and B-Company (2024) flag that most stock is philanthropic or hospital-affiliated; private beds per 1k seniors remain <1.

Affordability & payers

VnExpress (2025) notes monthly fees (~VND 10M+) outpace average pensions; innovative payment plans and insurance pilots are crucial.

Protection coverage gap

Asia Insurance Review (2025) reports ~73% of seniors lack pension/insurance, while VietnamPlus says only ~16.8% receive pensions — underscores payer risk.

Workforce and SOP pressure

DBMR and KPMG highlight the need for geriatric training, infection control, and international SOP adoption to meet premium expectations.

Land & licensing friction

Early provincial engagement and PPP pilots remain essential as land use rules and healthcare licensing vary by locality.

Demand signaling focus

Operators must educate families on phased care pathways while leveraging community clubs to build trust in paid models.

Risk	Mitigation	Source
Cultural acceptance	Family-inclusive design; phased care pathways; education campaigns	JLL•Arcadia Consulting
Affordability	Tiered pricing, cross-subsidy via wellness/real-estate components, day-care feeders	Viet Nam News•VnExpress
Protection & payer gaps	Partner with insurers, leverage social pension programs, build financing plans	Asia Insurance Review•VietnamPlus•VSS
Workforce/training	International operator partnerships; in-house academies; MOH-certified curricula	Ken Research•KPMG
Regulatory/licensing/land	Early provincial engagement; align with National Action Programme; secure healthcare partnerships	World Bank•B-Company
Urban/rural disparities	Hub-and-spoke rollout; mobile/home care integration; leverage 21k club expansion	UNFPA•Government directives

Backdrop includes the National Action Programme on Older People (2021–2030); local licensing and land support are pivotal for scale.

Monitoring dashboard

Focus area	What to track	Status
Land & PPP incentives	Track preferential leases, tax relief, or PPP pilots in Hà Nội, HCMC, Bình Dương, Đà Nẵng.	Emerging
Quality & accreditation	MOH/MOLISA drafting geriatric care SOPs; early adopters should self-audit against ASEAN/Japanese benchmarks.	In progress
Insurance & payment	Voluntary health insurance coverage for elder care remains low; private pay dominates near term.	Monitor

Investment Lens

Investment Implications

How to underwrite senior living in Vietnam

Demand Thesis & Target Cohorts

Vietnam’s 60+ population climbs from 14.1M (2024) to ~29.8M (2050), while single-household seniors and dual-income children struggle to provide informal care. Focus on tier-1 urban families willing to pay VND 18–40m/mo and returning overseas Vietnamese seeking lifestyle-retirement campuses.

Geography & Site Selection

Anchor first assets in HCMC & Hanoi near tertiary hospitals (Vinmec, Hoàn Mỹ) and densifying suburbs where land is cheaper. Layer coastal wellness destinations (Đà Nẵng, Nha Trang, Hội An) for independent living and peri-urban Hà Nam/Bà Rịa for mixed-use senior townships.

Product & Partnership Design

Pair mid-market assisted living (ADL support, SHI billing) with premium independent/wellness units. Partner with Japanese/Thai operators for SOPs, geriatric training, and accreditation; align with hospitals for chronic-care pathways and mobile/home-health feeders.

Financing & Capital Stack

Blend equity with provincial incentives: land-lease concessions, tax holidays, PPP grants. Monetize operating cash flows via SHI reimbursement, social pension top-ups, employer welfare programs, and ISHC distribution. Consider forward funding from insurers/bancassurance seeking LTC exposure.

Unit Economics & Revenue Mix

Model 75–85% occupancy breakeven with VND 18–28m assisted-living rates, ancillary upsell (rehab, home care, telehealth monitoring), and F&B/wellness memberships. Lock 10–15 year leases on clinic/commercial components to stabilize NOI; build data services for insurers/employers.

Operations, Scale & Exit

Stand up accredited training academies to solve workforce gaps; digitize care records to support SHI audits and quality KPIs. Standardize modular designs for replication (~120–180 bed cores) and target REIT, healthcare platform, or regional operator exits once 2–3 assets reach stabilized margin.

Risk & Mitigation Playbook

Address affordability via tiered pricing + subsidy channels, hedge staffing risk with international partners and in-house academies, and secure provincial support early to navigate land and licensing. Monitor SHI policy shifts, pension coverage, and macro shocks impacting household liquidity.

Execution Timeline

Expect 18–24 months from site control to opening: 6–9 months for approvals/PPP structuring, 9–12 months for construction + fit-out, and a 6–12 month ramp to stabilize occupancy. Use phased openings (independent living first, assisted wing second) to accelerate cash flow.

Performance & Impact KPIs

Track occupancy, average daily rate, net promoter score, staff-to-resident ratio, SHI reimbursement share, and ancillary revenue mix. Report social metrics—local employment, community programs—to unlock ESG-linked capital and demonstrate long-term resilience.

References

Sources

For deal flow and investment inquiries:

deal@gacapital.ai

GA Capital — Draft for discussion. Data current as of November 2025.