Vietnam Hotel
Industry
Tourism momentum, branded pipeline, and RevPAR dynamics across HCMC, Hà Nội, and coastal leisure markets.
Need to Know
Tourism roaring back
Vietnam targeted 22–23M international arrivals for 2025 after 17.5M in 2024. Chain hotels growing fast (34% market share), but independents still dominate by count.
RevPAR outperformance
Vietnam has been one of APAC's RevPAR stand-outs since late-2024. HCMC supply growth limited, supporting pricing power vs. Bangkok's heavier pipeline.
Branded pipeline expanding
Marriott: 54 properties / 16.4k rooms in pipeline. Hilton × Sun Group: adding ~1.8k rooms. Luxury & upper-upscale growing fastest across coastal leisure markets.
Executive Summary
Market momentum favors Vietnam
Vietnam's RevPAR trajectory outpaces Thailand (mixed) and Indonesia (bifurcated). HCMC supply discipline supports ADR pricing while Bangkok faces Q2 cooling with heavy 5 star pipeline.
Domestic giants hold scale
Mường Thanh (60+ hotels), Saigontourist (8k+ rooms), Vinpearl (16.1k rooms, 18 provinces), and A25 (60+ urban) dominate footprint. Vinpearl optimized portfolio in 2024.
International operators accelerating
Marriott (28 open, 54 pipeline), IHG (20 open, 22 signed), Hilton (21 open, +5 with Sun Group), Accor (40+), and Meliá (23) expanding through partnerships with local developers.
Geographic concentration clear
HCMC & Hà Nội carry deepest year-round MICE/corporate demand. Coastal battlegrounds: Đà Nẵng, Nha Trang, Phú Quốc, Hạ Long—recent signings skew luxury & upper-upscale.
Airport strength underpins demand
Tân Sơn Nhất (SGN) handled 39.9M pax in 2024 with T3 expansion + Long Thành coming. More seats + frequency from top feeder markets = higher, stickier demand and pricing power.
Our House Views
The China Paradox: Weakness Creates Diversification Upside
China recovery is slow (29% share vs. 32% pre-COVID), but this is forcing Vietnam to diversify source markets. Korea (14%), Japan (7%), Taiwan (6%) are growing—these are higher-quality, less policy-dependent markets. A Hanoi/HCMC business hotel captures China group tours plus Korean FIT. A Da Nang beach resort captures Korea/Japan leisure. If China fully recovers to 32%, that's bonus optionality: +500k arrivals translates to +3.5M room nights.
ALOS is the Hidden Alpha
Weighted ALOS is 7.52 days (2024 mix) vs. 8.1d national average because China (29% share, 6.98d ALOS) pulls the average down. But long-haul markets are growing: Russia 15.33d (3% share), USA 12.02d (4% share, $1,570/trip), UK 14.46d. Shifting the mix toward long-haul delivers more room nights per booking (lower acquisition costs), higher ADR (premium spenders), and better F&B capture (more days on property). Target hotels near Long Thành (2026) positioned for long-haul arrivals. Russia/USA markets need resort-style properties (Phu Quoc, Da Nang), not urban business hotels.
Airport Capacity is the Real Moat
Vietnam is building massive airlift capacity that will surpass Thailand by 2030. Current capacity sits at roughly 109M passengers, expanding to 125M+ by 2030 through Tân Sơn Nhất T3 (adding 20M by 2025), Long Thành Phase 1 (adding 25M by 2026), and Nội Bài expansion (reaching 50M by 2030). Thailand remains stuck at around 119M until Suvarnabhumi Phase 3 completes. This infrastructure supports Vietnam's 35-40M arrival targets. The Hanoi pipeline looks aggressive at first glance, but it aligns with where demand will be in 2030 once this airlift comes online.
Hanoi is Mispriced vs. HCMC
Hanoi ADRs are 12% lower than Ho Chi Minh ($135.50 vs $152), despite a stronger 1,600-room pipeline coming in 2025-2026. The Nội Bài Airport expansion, northern Vietnam resort gateways (Ha Long, Sapa), and stable government/diplomatic base position Hanoi to maintain market share as Vietnam tourism doubles. Ho Chi Minh benefits from supply discipline (only 269 rooms in H2 2025), which supports pricing power. That certainty commands a premium. Hanoi offers lower entry prices and better value-add returns if you can weather 2-3 years of pipeline absorption.
The SHREIT Transaction Sets the Floor, Not the Ceiling
June 2023: USD $106.1M portfolio (ibis Saigon South 140 keys, Capri by Fraser HCMC 175 keys + Jakarta Pullman) is the ONLY publicly disclosed institutional hotel trade since 2023. This tells us the transaction market is thin and cap rates remain model-based rather than market-tested. Opportunistic buyers like Everland Opportunities IX are active and willing to move on portfolios rather than single assets.
Da Nang's Short ALOS is a Red Flag Until Fixed
Da Nang ALOS: 1.38-2.04 days depending on accommodation type. This is alarmingly short. High churn hurts labor costs. Weekend-driven means no midweek stability. Needs immediate diversification: MICE infrastructure, wellness/spa packages, multi-night resort experiences. Avoid pure Da Nang beach plays unless you see evidence of ALOS extension strategies (e.g., branded resort with on-property activities, DIFF Fireworks Festival tie-ins, corporate retreat positioning). The fundamentals (65.9k rooms, Liberation Day peak 85% occ) are strong, but the business model needs restructuring.
Cap Rate Compression is Coming (Eventually)
Vietnam trading at 6.5-8.0% entry caps vs. Thailand 4.5-6.5%. That's 150-250 bps spread for a market with HIGHER growth rates (17.5M → 35M by 2030 vs. Thailand already at 35M). Either: (a) Vietnam compresses as it matures (institutional capital floods in post-2026 when Long Thành operational + track record builds), or (b) You're getting paid 150-250 bps for liquidity/execution risk. Both scenarios work if you underwrite to hold and can weather 5-7 years. Don't expect quick cap rate compression—this is a 2028-2030 story as transaction volume builds and REITs form. When it happens, early movers capture the spread.
Bangkok Q2 2025 Softness is Your Leading Indicator
Bangkok occupancy fell to 72.3% in Q2 2025 (down from 76% Q1), RevPAR dropped 10% quarter-over-quarter, and China arrivals disappointed (5M vs. 7M target). Thailand already handles 35M+ international arrivals with mature infrastructure, yet the market is softening. Vietnam, tracking toward 22M international arrivals in 2025 plus 150M domestic trips, is 2-3 years behind in the cycle. The question: if Bangkok struggles with that volume, what happens when Vietnam adds another 10,000+ rooms to its pipeline? Vietnam's 8.1-day average stay provides some cushion—longer trips mean steadier occupancy and better revenue capture per guest. But don't ignore the warning. If Bangkok's weakness extends into 2026, it signals regional oversupply. If it stabilizes by year-end, the story holds.
Market Baseline — 2024/2025
Key Metrics
City Hotel Inventory
| City | Total Rooms | Hotels | Scope | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCMC | 25,000 | 261 | JLL Vietnam Q2 2025 | Flat since December 2024 |
| Đà Nẵng | 65,900 | — | vietnam.vn | Event-driven demand, strong MICE appeal |
| Phú Quốc | — | — | Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism | — |
| Bangkok | 146,628 | — | C&W Bangkok MarketBeat Q2 2025 | — |
Airport Throughput (2024)
| Airport | City | Passengers | System Total | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suvarnabhumi (BKK) | Bangkok | 62,200,000 | AOT six airports: 119,300,000 | FY2024 data |
| Tân Sơn Nhất (SGN) | Ho Chi Minh City | 39,900,000 | ACV Vietnam: 110,000,000 | T3 expansion + Long Thành coming |
Key Infrastructure Projects
Airport & Metro Development Driving Hotel Demand
Ho Chi Minh Metro
Metro • Completed 2024
HCMC's metro launched in 2024
Scale
19.7km with three underground stations
Hotel Impact
Improves accessibility to city center hotels, reduces car dependency for tourists
Investment Implication
Transit-oriented development opportunities near stations; Ben Thanh and Opera House stations enhance existing hotel clusters
Tan Son Nhat Terminal 3
Airport • Under construction
New terminal for Tan Son Nhat International Airport
Capacity
20 million passengers annually
Hotel Impact
Increased international arrivals to HCMC, extended average stays
Investment Implication
Airport hotel/transit hotel opportunity; upward pressure on citywide occupancy & ADR
Long Thanh International Airport
Airport • Phase 1 in construction
Phase 1
25 million passengers, 1.2 million tonnes cargo annually
Ultimate: 100 million passengers, 5 million tonnes cargo by 2040 (four terminals, four runways)
Hotel Impact
New hotel development cluster in Dong Nai Province; relieves Tan Son Nhat congestion
Investment Implication
Greenfield resort and business hotel opportunities near Long Thanh; repositions HCMC as regional aviation hub enhancing overall demand
Noi Bai International Airport Expansion
Airport • Planning/early execution
Expansion of Hanoi's primary international gateway
Hotel Impact
Increased Hanoi hotel demand; northern Vietnam resort development (Ha Long, Sapa connectivity)
Investment Implication
Hanoi hotel undersupply expected through 2030; airport corridor hotel opportunities
Takeaways
Metro (2024): HCMC metro reduces car dependency, improves city center hotel accessibility, unlocks TOD opportunities near Ben Thanh & Opera House stations.
Tan Son Nhat Terminal 3 (2025): +20M pax capacity relieves congestion, extends average stays, creates airport hotel/transit hotel demand.
Long Thanh (2026-2040): Greenfield resort/business hotel cluster in Dong Nai Province; positions HCMC as regional aviation hub with 100M pax ultimate capacity.
HCMC H1 2025 — Tourism Rebound
Tourism Momentum Leading Vietnam
2025 Targets & Achievement
Post-Merger Expansion Opportunity
July 2025 Merger: HCMC integrated tourism industries of Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau
New Tourism Revenue Target: $2.775 billion
Expected Increase: 30% compared to combined pre-merger figures
Supply Concentration & Constraints
City Center Dominance
Supply Pipeline
Q2 2025: Accumulated supply unchanged since December 2024
H2 2025: Only 269 new keys expected, primarily in city center
Investment Sentiment
RevPAR performance and investment sentiment increasing despite constrained deal activity
Challenges: Intricate ownership structures, legislative hurdles, protracted bargaining procedures
Opportunity: Undersupply situation + potential for expanding supply clusters outside city center
Đà Nẵng & Phú Quốc — Growth Markets
Beyond HCMC: Event-Driven & Leisure Destinations
Đà Nẵng
Key Demand Drivers
- • DIFF (Đà Nẵng International Fireworks Festival)
- • Strong MICE segment appeal
- • National celebration peaks (Liberation Day 30/4, Reunification 1/5)
- • Beach leisure + cultural tourism mix
Source: vietnam.vn
Phú Quốc (Kiên Giang Province)
Market Characteristics
- • Resort-focused destination (vs urban hotel mix)
- • International airport connectivity
- • Casino resort development (Corona Resort & Casino)
- • Year-round tropical climate
Source: Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism
Research Status: Initial Anchors Established
Current Data: Đà Nẵng supply inventory and peak occupancy metrics; Phú Quốc visitor volumes and momentum indicators.
Data Gaps: Brand penetration, pipeline projects 2025-2028, full-year performance (Occ/ADR/RevPAR), transaction activity, investment sentiment.
Next Steps: Comprehensive research plan documented in RESEARCH-PLAN-DANANG-PHUQUOC.md — targeting STR, JLL, Savills, CBRE reports; government tourism statistics; operator announcements. Estimated completion: 4 weeks for full market profiles with investment frameworks.
Market Performance Q2 2025
| Market | Occupancy | ADR | RevPAR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ho Chi Minh City | 80% | — | — | Occupancy + ADR rising YoY → RevPAR growth; supply flat since Dec 2024 |
| Bangkok | 72.3% | 3753 | 2712 | Down QoQ: Occ 72.3% (↓ from 76%), ADR THB 3,753 (↓ from 3,812), RevPAR -10.1% |
| Jakarta | 57% | — | — | Demand under pressure |
| Bali | 67.75% | — | — | RevPAR +14% YoY in 2024 |
Hotel M&A Activity — Closed & Pipeline
Closed Transactions (Jun 2023 — SHREIT Portfolio)
USD 106.1M Portfolio Sale
Only publicly disclosed institution-scale Vietnam hotel trade since 2023
Seller
SHREIT / Strategic Hospitality Holdings
Buyer
Everland Opportunities IX Ltd
Advisor
JLL
| Property | City | Rooms | Brand | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ibis Saigon South | Ho Chi Minh | 140 | Accor (Ibis) | Portfolio sale (3 assets across SEA) |
| Capri by Fraser Ho Chi Minh | Ho Chi Minh | 175 | Frasers Hospitality | Portfolio sale (3 assets across SEA) |
Active M&A Pipeline (2024-2025)
Landmark 55 Hotel Tower
Hanoi (Starlake)
Office tower in same complex sold to Mapletree (Dec 2024); hotel block being marketed separately
Part of $234M Hanoi property project; hotel component not yet priced publicly
Windsor Plaza Hotel
Ho Chi Minh
Van Thinh Phat-linked asset amid multibillion-dollar fraud case; creditors seeking asset disposals
No publicly confirmed sale yet; high-profile distressed opportunity
Times Square Saigon
Ho Chi Minh
Van Thinh Phat-linked asset; creditors seeking disposals
No publicly confirmed sale yet; iconic district 1 location
Distressed Asset Watch
Van Thinh Phat-linked assets (Windsor Plaza, Times Square Saigon) expected to enter disposal/auction processes amid creditor proceedings. No publicly confirmed sales yet.
Opportunity: High-risk/high-reward plays for opportunistic buyers; expect discounts to replacement cost. Watchlist for incoming transactions.
Related Development Activity
Trump Organization Golf + Resort
Near Hanoi • New-build (greenfield)
Significance: Adds supply and investor attention; signals confidence in Vietnam hospitality market
Market Outlook & Investment Implications
2023 Market Activity
- • Closed Deals: 1 portfolio sale (USD 106.1M for 3 SEA hotels, 2 in Vietnam)
- • Vietnam Component: ibis Saigon South (140 keys) + Capri by Fraser HCMC (175 keys)
- • Buyer: Everland Opportunities IX Ltd (opportunistic capital)
- • Seller: SHREIT/Strategic Hospitality Holdings (Singapore REIT exit)
2024-2025 Pipeline
- • Landmark 55 Hotel Tower (Hanoi) – seeking buyer, announced Feb 2025
- • Van Thinh Phat distressed assets (Windsor Plaza, Times Square) – expected auctions/disposals
- • Expected Investment 2025: USD 125M+ (JLL forecast) (JLL)
- • Expected Investment 2026: USD 200M (JLL projection) (JLL)
Price Per Key Guidance
Portfolio Implied: USD 106.1M / 315 total keys (Vietnam + Jakarta) = ~USD 337k/key blended (not Vietnam-specific)
Note: Individual asset pricing not disclosed; Vietnam component likely lower than blended rate given Jakarta Pullman premium
Estimated Range (HCMC Select-Service): USD 250k-350k/key for branded select-service HCMC (based on portfolio context)
Expected Buyer Profile
- • REITs seeking replacement assets post-exit (e.g., SHREIT divesting)
- • Opportunistic/distressed buyers for Van Thinh Phat assets
- • Institutional investors targeting Landmark 55 (Hanoi prime location)
Investment Implications
- • Liquidity: Limited transaction volume 2023-2024; market awaiting catalyst (distressed disposals, REIT rotations)
- • Distressed Opportunity: Van Thinh Phat assets (Windsor Plaza, Times Square) present high-risk/high-reward plays; expect discounts to replacement cost
- • Institutional Demand: JLL forecasts USD 125M-200M annual investment 2025-2026 indicate pent-up buyer interest
- • Pricing: Lack of recent comps creates valuation uncertainty; buyers likely underwriting conservatively vs. 2019 peaks
- • Entry Strategy: Portfolio acquisitions (SHREIT precedent) or distressed asset auctions (Van Thinh Phat) most likely near-term deal structures
Domestic Hotel Chains
Biggest domestic operators by footprint
| Chain | Scale | Where Strong | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mường Thanh Hospitality | 60+ hotels | Nationwide coverage, heavy in provincial hubs and tourism cities | Largest private chain in Indochina (Vietnam & Laos) |
| Saigontourist Group | 50+ hotels/resorts, 8,000+ rooms | Broad national footprint; deep roots in HCMC | State-owned tourism conglomerate |
| Vinpearl | 31 hotels/resorts after 2024 restructuring, 16,100+ rooms | Beach/leisure clusters: Phú Quốc, Nha Trang, Hạ Long, Đà Nẵng/Hội An | Vingroup hospitality arm; trimmed/optimized portfolio in 2024 |
| A25 Hotels | 60+ midscale city hotels | Dense in Hà Nội & HCMC; also Đà Nẵng/Hạ Long | Urban-focused midscale brand |
International Chains
International operators in Vietnam
| Operator | Open Now | Pipeline | Presence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accor | ~40+ hotels (2023, expanded since) | Active signings (e.g., Sofitel Sa Pa); robust APAC pipeline | Hà Nội, HCMC, Đà Nẵng, Nha Trang, Phú Quốc, Sapa |
| Marriott | 28 hotels / 9,076 rooms | 54 properties / 16,448 rooms in pipeline (end-2024) | 12 destinations incl. Hà Nội, HCMC, Đà Nẵng, Phú Quốc |
| IHG | 20 hotels (as of 31 Mar 2025) | 22 more signed | Coastal luxury + major cities |
| Hilton | 21 trading hotels (Oct 2025) | +5 signed with Sun Group (~1,800 rooms), doubling presence "in coming years" | Strong push in Quảng Ninh, Đà Nẵng, Phú Quốc |
| Meliá | 23 hotels (open + pipeline) | Ongoing luxury growth | Leisure coasts + Hà Nội/HCMC |
| Ascott | 38 properties in operation & development | Expanding into Tier-2/3 cities | Urban extended-stay and mixed-use |
| Radisson Hotel Group | 5-6 open by late 2024 | Hạ Long signed; additional 2025 signings | Cam Ranh, Phú Quốc, Đà Nẵng, Phan Thiết |
| Hyatt | Park Hyatt Saigon, Hyatt Regency Danang | Select pipeline | Luxury city/beach anchor points |
| Wyndham | ≈10 branded hotels (2025) | Ongoing additions | Coastal and secondary cities |
Key Partnerships
Vietnam vs Thailand vs Indonesia
| Metric | Vietnam | Thailand | Indonesia (Bali) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADR | $135.50 (Hanoi) / $152 (HCMC) | ~$180 (Bangkok) | $175-200 (Bali) |
| Occupancy | 68.5% | 72.3% | 67.75% |
| RevPAR | $91 (Hanoi) / $106 (HCMC) | ~$130 (Bangkok Q2 2025) | ~$118-135 (Bali) |
| Entry Cap | 6.5-8.0% | 4.5-6.5% | 6.0-7.5% |
| International Arrivals | 17.5M | 35M | 16M |
| ALOS | 8.1 days | 9.5 days | 6.5 days |
| Pipeline | +27.6% (Hanoi 5-star) | +4.87% (Bangkok, 63.8% is 5-star) | +5-8% (moderate) |
Vietnam
Strengths
- ✓Strong tourism recovery: 17.5M international arrivals (2024), up from pre-COVID
- ✓Favorable visa policy: 90-day e-visa, 45-day visa-free for 13 countries
- ✓Competitive ADR vs. regional peers: $135-152 (vs. Bangkok $180, Bali $175-200)
- ✓High ALOS: 8.1 days (international commercial accommodation 8.02d)
- ✓Long-haul markets growing: US 12d ALOS, UK 14.5d, Russia 15.3d
- ✓Infrastructure investment: Long Thanh Airport Phase 1 (2026, 25M pax), Tan Son Nhat T3, Noi Bai expansion
- ✓Government target: 35-40M international arrivals by 2030
Risks
- !Aggressive pipeline: Hanoi +1.6k rooms (2025-2026) = +27.6% supply growth
- !China dependency: 29% of arrivals but recovering slowly (vs. 32% pre-COVID)
- !Short ALOS in some markets: China 6.98d, Korea 5.90d
- !Limited institutional transaction history: Cap rates based on build-up, few comps
- !LURC (land use rights) term risk for older assets
- !Da Nang very short ALOS: 1.38-2.04 days (needs product diversification)
Thailand
Strengths
- ✓Largest ASEAN hotel market: 35M international arrivals (2× Vietnam)
- ✓Premium pricing: Bangkok ADR ~$180 (33% higher than HCMC)
- ✓Strong RevPAR: $130 despite Q2 2025 softness
- ✓Deep institutional market: Lower cap rates (4.5-6.5%) reflect liquidity
- ✓Mature infrastructure: 119M airport capacity, extensive domestic connectivity
- ✓Diversified source markets: Less China-dependent than Vietnam
- ✓Established brand presence: All major int'l operators, deep management bench
Risks
- !Q2 2025 softness: Occupancy down from 76% (Q1) to 72.3%
- !China disappointment: 5M Chinese arrivals (-30% from 7M target)
- !Tourism target cut: 37.5M (revised down from 39.5M)
- !Political uncertainty: Can impact booking confidence
- !Bangkok CBD oversupply: 53.1% of supply in CBD
- !High ADR may price out budget-conscious travelers vs. Vietnam
Indonesia (Bali)
Strengths
- ✓Record 2024 performance: RevPAR +14% YoY
- ✓Strong beach resort positioning: Premium pricing vs. urban markets
- ✓Diversified visitor base: Australia, China, Europe, India
- ✓Cultural/experiential differentiation: Unique Hindu culture, wellness tourism
- ✓Premium ADR: $175-200 (Bali) competitive with Bangkok
- ✓Steady occupancy: 67.75% (Jul 2025), resilient demand
Risks
- !Limited to island market: Less diversification than Vietnam (multiple cities)
- !Infrastructure constraints: Airport capacity, traffic congestion
- !Environmental concerns: Overdevelopment, water scarcity
- !Shorter ALOS: ~6.5 days (vs. Vietnam 8.1d) = higher churn
- !Jakarta weakness: 57% occupancy (Jun 2025) shows urban hotel pressure
- !Political/regulatory risk: Tourism taxes, environmental regulations
Source Market Deep-Dive
Quick Scenarios
Adjust Market Mix
Move sliders to change source market shares. Results update in real-time.
Calculated Results
Impact of your chosen market mix on hotel demand and performance.
Room Nights by Market
International demand only: 35M arrivals × 7.1-day ALOS = 247.3M room nights. At 70% occupancy, implies ~968k keys needed.
But Vietnam also serves ~150M domestic trips annually. The 780k total accommodation supply (hotels + guesthouses + homestays) handles both segments. Domestic travelers often stay with family or use budget/untracked lodging, so they don't require 1:1 room-night conversion. The 140k tracked 4-5 star supply primarily serves international tourists and premium domestic travelers.
Source Market Deep-Dives
China
- ✓Largest single source market: 29% share = 5.1M arrivals
- ✓Short ALOS (6.98d) = high churn = more frequent turnovers (good for F&B, occupancy volume)
- ✓Group tour model = predictable block bookings for hotels
- !Policy-dependent: China gov't can restrict outbound group tours (as seen 2020-2023)
- !Short ALOS means less room revenue per guest vs. long-haul markets
- !Price-sensitive: Competes on value, limits ADR growth
South Korea
- ✓Fastest-growing major market: 14% share up from 12% pre-COVID
- ✓Higher spend per day (~$180) vs. China (~$150)
- ✓K-drama/K-pop tourism halo: Filming locations drive visitation (Da Nang, Hoi An)
- !Shortest ALOS of major markets (5.90d): High churn but less room revenue per guest
- !Fashion-driven: Quick to shift to new 'hot' destinations (Thailand, Japan)
- !Won currency volatility: Affects affordability vs. regional peers
Russia
- ✓Longest ALOS: 15.33 days = lowest churn, highest room revenue per guest
- ✓Beach resort focus: Nha Trang is 'Russian resort town' (signage, menus in Russian)
- ✓High-margin stays: 15+ days × $120/day = $1,800+ spend per trip
- !Payment processing: Sanctions on Russian banks complicate transactions (Visa/MC restricted)
- !Flight capacity: Limited direct routes (mostly charter flights)
- !Concentrated geography: 80%+ in Nha Trang creates single-city dependency
United States
- ✓Highest spend per trip: $1,570 (2.2× China, 1.4× average)
- ✓Long ALOS: 12.02 days = very low churn, high lifetime guest value
- ✓Quality focus: Willing to pay premium for service, experience, authenticity
- !Small share: Only 4% of arrivals (vs. China 29%, Korea 14%)
- !Long-haul sensitivity: 16-20 hour flights = high friction to visit
- !Economic volatility: Discretionary spending vulnerable to US recession
Japan
- ✓Quality-conscious: High service standards, willing to pay for experience
- ✓Repeat visitors: Japanese tourists often return multiple times
- ✓Golf tourism: Da Nang, Dalat golf resorts popular with Japanese seniors
- !Aging demographics: Japan's population aging = fewer young travelers
- !Yen weakness: Makes Vietnam more expensive vs. domestic Japan travel
- !Short ALOS: 6.47 days (vs. US 12d) limits per-guest revenue
Taiwan
- ✓Growing share: 6% up from 5% pre-COVID
- ✓Value-conscious but quality-seeking (sweet spot for 3-4 star)
- ✓Cultural similarity: Easy adaptation to Vietnamese culture, food
- !Modest ALOS: 6.77 days (higher churn)
- !Budget sensitivity: Competes with Thailand, Philippines on price
- !Small absolute numbers: 1M arrivals (vs. China 5M)
Sources
- JLL Vietnam — HCMC Hotel Market Q2 2025
- JLL — First Southeast Asia Hotel Portfolio Sale 2023 (SHREIT, USD 106.1M)
- JLL — Vietnam Hotel Investment Market to Cross $125M in FY25
- Bizhub VietnamNews — Vietnam Hotel Investment Market $125M FY25, $200M FY26 forecast (JLL)
- The Investor — Thai fund SHREIT sells 3 hotels (HCMC, Jakarta) for $106M (ibis Saigon South 140 keys, Capri by Fraser 175 keys)
- Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA) — 10Y govt bond auction results Oct 29 2025: 3.6-3.95%
- Cushman & Wakefield — Bangkok MarketBeat Q2 2025
- vietnam.vn — Đà Nẵng Hotel Inventory (July 2025)
- Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism — Phú Quốc Tourism Statistics (2025)
- The Investor — Taseco Land Seeks Buyer for Landmark 55 Hotel (Feb 2025)
- Reuters — Van Thinh Phat Distressed Assets (Windsor Plaza, Times Square)
- Reuters — Trump Organization Breaks Ground on $1.5B Golf Club Vietnam (May 2025)
- Cục Du lịch Quốc gia Việt Nam — 10.7M international arrivals H1 2025 (Jul 10 2025)
- Vietnam Tourism — 6M international arrivals Q1 2025 (Jun 11 2025)
- SGGP English Edition — 17.2M international arrivals 10 months 2025 (Nov 5 2025)
- VNAT/Chuyên trang Kích cầu du lịch năm 2025 — 9.2M Arrivals Jan-May 2025
- VNAT Visitor Survey 2019 (Annual Report) — International ALOS 8.1 days; by market (China 6.98d, Korea 5.90d, USA 12.02d, UK 14.46d, etc.)
- VNAT Domestic Visitor Survey 2019 — Domestic ALOS 3.62 days
- Vietnam National Administration of Tourism — US Market: 12-day ALOS, $1,570 avg spend, 529k arrivals Jan-Aug 2024
- VNAT — Hanoi tourist ALOS 3.67 days (2019, Mastercard DCI)
- VNAT — Khanh Hoa (Nha Trang) ALOS: 3.3 days international, 2.0 days domestic
- Vietnam General Statistics Office — Tourism Statistics Methodology (ALOS definitions)
- HCMC Statistics Office / SGGP — HCMC international visitor ALOS 5.21 days (2017)
- VietnamPlus — Da Nang ALOS 1.38 days (2024); needs new products for longer stays
- Da Nang Government News — Da Nang ALOS Jan-Sep 2025: 2.04 days intl, 1.75 days domestic
- Báo Lao động thủ đô — VNAT/GSO 2017 International Visitor Survey: avg 9.27 days at commercial accommodation
- KPMG Vietnam — Immigration Law (90-day e-visa, 45-day waiver)
- Knight Frank Vietnam Real Estate Market Quarterly Q2 2025
- Knight Frank Vietnam Investment Guide August 2025 — Industrial yields 7.3-7.8%
- Savills Vietnam Real Estate Market Report Q1/2025 & Q2/2025
- Savills Asia Pacific Hospitality Spotlight September 2024 — APAC hotel initial yields 4-5%
- The Asset — Asia Pacific Hotel Investment Volume Moderates (H1 2025)
- HVS — Market Snapshot Asia Pacific 2024
- Vietstock — Legal Framework on Condotel/Officetel (LURC)
- vietnamnews.vn — Condotels/Officetels Get Ownership Certificates (Decree 10/2023)
- Báo Chính phủ — Vietnam targets 22–23M international visitors in 2025
- Vietnam Tourism — 17.5M international arrivals in 2024
- Mường Thanh Hospitality — Largest private chain in Indochina
- Saigontourist Group — Hotels & Resorts (50+ properties, 8,000+ rooms)
- Saigontourist — Audited Consolidated Financial Statements 2023
- Vinpearl — MOU with four leading Russian tour operators
- Vinpearl — Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements FY2024
- GTJA Securities — Assessment of Vinpearl's Listing Activities (March 2025)
- A25 Hotel — Your House (60+ midscale city hotels)
- Sun Hospitality Group — Portfolio & strategic partnerships
- Vietnam+ — World's leading hotel groups to double down on investment in Vietnam
- Vietnam News — Marriott International optimistic about Vietnam's tourism landscape (28 hotels, 54 pipeline)
- IHG — Doubles up on Vignette Collection in Vietnam (20 hotels, 22 signed)
- Hilton Stories — Hilton and Sun Group deepen strategic partnership (~1,800 rooms)
- Vietcetera — Meliá Hotels International expands in Vietnam (23 hotels)
- VnEconomy — The Ascott Limited expands to Can Tho (38 properties)
- VIR — Radisson Hotel Group expands world-class hospitality across Vietnam
- Hyatt — Explore Hyatt hotels in Vietnam
- Tripadvisor — Wyndham Hotels in Vietnam
- JLL — Ho Chi Minh City Hotels Q2 2025 (25,000+ keys, 261 hotels, H1 tourism data)
- Cushman & Wakefield — Bangkok Hotel MarketBeat Q2 2025 (146,628 rooms, Q2 performance)
- STR (CoStar) — Asia Pacific hotel performance update (April 2025)
- STR (CoStar) — Asia Pacific hotel performance update (general)
- JLL — Hotel Market Insights Q2 2025 (APAC overview)
- Cushman & Wakefield — Jakarta Hotel MarketBeat H1 2025 (44,016 rooms)
- CBRE — Asia Pacific Hotel Trends Q2 2025
- CBRE — 2025 Global Hotel Outlook
- Horwath HTL — Bali Hotel & Branded Residences 2025 (RevPAR +14%)
- Colliers — Quarterly Property Market Report Q3 2025 Bali Hotel (59,470 rooms)
- Vietnam News — Rooms to be added to hotel real estate market: Savills Vietnam
- TheLEADER — Revitalizing Vietnam's hospitality sector: A shift in branding
- The Saigon Times — Vietnam's airports serve 109M passengers in 2024
- The Nation Thailand — Thailand's international airports see 19% more passengers (119.3M, FY2024)
- Badan Pusat Statistik Bali — Room Occupancy Rates of Classified Hotels in Bali
- Badan Pusat Statistik Bali — Tourism Overview July 2025 (67.75% occupancy)
- HVS — A New Approach to Hotel Management Fees
- Reuters — Big hotel chains and unbranded-hotel owners find they need each other
- Reuters — Vietnam approves establishment of Sun Phuquoc Airways
- Reuters — Vietnam approves $1.5B investment plan by Trump Organization partner